ndrew Yang is an entrepreneur and former corporate lawyer who until recently was also a Democratic presidential hopeful for the 2020 elections. Yang suspended his campaign for the Democratic nomination last month and he is probably most famous for his campaign pledge to give $1,000 every month, to every American, if he was elected president due to the massive threat of automation for so many jobs.
Aside from his $1,000 Freedom Dividend, one of Yang’s most recurring themes on the campaign trail was the danger of job automation. According to Yang, the automation of many jobs that are the backbone of today’s society could see a crisis unravel in the next 10 years.
One of Yang’s biggest focusses in job automation is the advent of autonomous vehicles.
“ALL YOU NEED IS SELF-DRIVING CARS TO DESTABILIZE SOCIETY….WE’RE GOING TO HAVE A MILLION TRUCK DRIVERS OUT OF WORK WHO ARE 94 PERCENT MALE, WITH AN AVERAGE LEVEL OF EDUCATION OF HIGH SCHOOL OR ONE YEAR OF COLLEGE….WE HAVE FIVE TO 10 YEARS BEFORE TRUCKERS LOSE THEIR JOBS, AND ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE”.
Andrew Yang, Entrepreneur
Is Yang’s Argument Valid?
On the one hand, yes. It is definitely true that more and more jobs will be lost to job automation in the future.
A recent two-year study carried out by the McKinsey Global Institue reported that by 2030, intelligent agents and robots could eliminate as much as 30% of the world’s labor, displacing the jobs of as many as 800 million people.
When looked at in black and white like this, it would seem that Yang’s fears are valid and that society could be on the verge of a new crisis. Especially for the vulnerable, often not well-educated people who currently do the jobs which are most at risk from automation.
The Other Side of the Coin
The problem with studies like the one carried out by the McKinsey Global Institue is that its focus, or at least the way its findings are reported, is only on the headline stealing figures reported above.
Of course, these numbers sound terrible, but these scary numbers ignore the reality that we live in a society that is constantly developing. AI and job automation is just a new facet of that development.
In the ‘60s, John F. Kennedy was warning of the challenge of trying to maintain full employment:
“AT A TIME WHEN AUTOMATION, OF COURSE, IS REPLACING MEN.”
John F. Kennedy, Former US President
Sixty years later we’re saying the same thing. That didn’t happen then and it is equally unlikely to happen now.
Change Creates More Opportunities Than It Destroys
Andrew Yang’s keen focus on all truck drivers losing their jobs to autonomous vehicles is an interesting one as he is suggesting that the innovation of transport is an evil enemy that is going to wipe out people’s livelihoods and lead to chaos.
This blindly ignores the fact that innovation in transport is what has powered the growth of society as we know it today. Canals, railroads, highways, air travel. All of these things were innovations that pushed society forward.
History would suggest then that AI and autonomous vehicles will do more of the same, not lead to the apocalypse.
As a study from the OECD reports:
“HISTORICALLY, THE INCOME-GENERATING EFFECTS OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES HAVE PROVED MORE POWERFUL THAN THE LABOR-DISPLACING EFFECTS: TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED NOT ONLY BY HIGHER OUTPUT AND PRODUCTIVITY BUT ALSO BY HIGHER OVERALL EMPLOYMENT.”Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
So it seems that Yang’s tale is an easy one to tell and with genuine supporting figures that can make it sound like a real specter to worry about. The reality would seem to be that this line of argument is more some kind of lazy scaremongering and that it is job automation and AI that will in fact drive society forward rather than see it descend into chaos.
